Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 10.237514 12.032448 14.006087 16.331339 18.989683 21.927589 25.413651
2024-12-22 7.487792 9.797558 12.576311 16.141329 20.566900 25.851408 32.607376
2024-12-29 5.806299 8.325437 11.594406 16.093489 22.062380 29.639715 39.904934
2025-01-05 4.469822 6.962543 10.423845 15.490815 22.609984 32.129794 45.667534
2025-01-12 3.676050 6.162138 9.825333 15.481094 23.824477 35.478148 52.729584
2025-01-19 3.069849 5.508301 9.302522 15.449838 24.921967 38.670913 59.750997
2025-01-26 2.781299 5.293317 9.389055 16.301501 27.348210 43.902085 70.025291
2025-02-02 2.507068 5.047125 9.375813 16.965967 29.512391 48.871865 80.235626
2025-02-09 2.291995 4.863468 9.429533 17.722358 31.858755 54.256136 91.407277
2025-02-16 1.992179 4.467691 9.055824 17.696704 32.897606 57.636794 99.659789
2025-02-23 1.671623 3.971765 8.428354 17.139648 32.962429 59.419679 105.443508
2025-03-02 1.388716 3.498332 7.771981 16.440174 32.688011 60.582868 110.240714
2025-03-09 1.225670 3.258196 7.546350 16.539016 33.876428 64.348177 119.710231
2025-03-16 1.070217 3.005539 7.260037 16.485750 34.777729 67.680695 128.668763
2025-03-23 0.940999 2.788844 7.016789 16.485343 35.768143 71.224575 138.199766
2025-03-30 0.786663 2.475706 6.514974 15.886003 35.532994 72.526010 143.834737
2025-04-06 0.694332 2.304351 6.306829 15.881708 36.465270 76.016673 153.584802
2025-04-13 0.612683 2.144024 6.099737 15.851698 37.333432 79.429683 163.373118
2025-04-20 0.588514 2.144850 6.284212 16.723469 40.144004 86.717977 180.746206
2025-04-27 0.555790 2.113158 6.382280 17.403264 42.595968 93.447843 197.408743
2025-05-04 0.529445 2.095978 6.515000 18.176828 45.306006 100.835013 215.689711
2025-05-11 0.471878 1.964314 6.325818 18.150629 46.253131 104.754806 227.476090
2025-05-18 0.401386 1.770436 5.936234 17.581007 45.929150 106.069030 234.224692